OpenAI’s IPO race is now a capital arms race

OpenAI’s IPO plan shows how AI firms are racing to fund huge compute bills through public markets.

OpenAI’s filing adds a fresh twist to the AI funding race: the company behind ChatGPT is preparing for a stock market debut while rival Anthropic has already said it wants to go public. The stakes are high, with private valuations near $1tn and compute costs that can run past $100bn a year.

1. OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing

OpenAI said it has filed confidential paperwork with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to pursue an initial public offering in the future. The company also said it has not set a date, which leaves room to stay private until the timing makes sense.

That choice matters because a public listing would force more disclosure on finances and product plans. It could also make some private fundraising less attractive, since investors would know more and deals can take longer to close.

• Filed confidentially with the SEC
• No IPO date announced
• Could go public sooner if needed

2. Anthropic’s near-term pressure point

Anthropic, maker of the Claude chatbot, said a week earlier that it plans to go public too. The company has become OpenAI’s closest public-market mirror, with both firms now competing not just for users but for investor attention.

Anthropic’s most recent valuation was reported at $965bn, and the company has told investors it expects to turn a profit in the first half of this year. That gives it a different pitch from OpenAI, but both still need large amounts of capital to keep training models and serving customers.

• Claude is Anthropic’s main product
• Recent valuation: $965bn
• Profit expected in the first half of the year

3. SpaceX’s market debut target

SpaceX is another heavyweight heading toward public markets, with a Nasdaq debut targeted for Friday. The company is aiming for a share price that would value it at $1.75tn, which would make it one of the largest listings in modern market history.

Its presence in the same story shows how AI is part of a broader surge in capital-hungry private firms. SpaceX is not an AI company in the same way as OpenAI or Anthropic, but it faces the same basic problem: building expensive systems before the cash flow fully catches up.

• Target valuation: $1.75tn
• Nasdaq debut planned for Friday
• Part of the same wave of heavyweight IPOs

4. Compute costs that dwarf revenue

The biggest reason these firms are circling public markets is compute. That term covers the chips, servers and processing power needed to build, test and run AI products at scale. For OpenAI, those costs are estimated at more than $100bn a year, while revenue is only a fraction of that.

That gap explains why investors are watching the listings so closely. Public markets can provide a bigger pool of capital than private rounds, and for companies spending at this level, that difference can decide how fast they can keep growing.

• OpenAI compute costs: over $100bn a year
• Revenue remains far below spending
• Public listing can unlock larger capital pools

5. Why this race affects the whole AI sector

Analysts say the timing of these listings will shape expectations for other AI firms. If OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX are rewarded by investors, more private companies may rush to follow. If the market is cautious, the next wave could slow down.

Richard Crowley of Singapore Management University said the firms’ financing fates are tied to how the public views generative AI. Sunil Krishnan of Aviva Investors added that “no-one wants to be last,” which captures the pressure to move before the market mood changes.

• Investor reaction will set the tone for later IPOs
• Public perception of AI now affects private financing
• First movers may shape valuation benchmarks

How to decide

If you care most about OpenAI’s next move, focus on its confidential filing and the timing gap it leaves open. If you want the clearest rival comparison, Anthropic is the better benchmark because it has already signaled a public listing and has a near-$1tn valuation.

For readers tracking the money behind AI, the real story is not just the IPO headline. It is the scale of compute spending, the pressure to raise fresh capital and the way public markets may reset what investors think these companies are worth.